Topline
Job growth was far better than expected and unemployment slightly worse than anticipated in March, according to Labor Department data released Friday morning, as the labor market under President Donald Trump takes shape – and tariff-related concerns cast a dark shadow.
The Trump administration’s reimagining of the federal government has upended the labor market.
Key Facts
The U.S. added 228,000 nonfarm jobs from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, far more than consensus economist estimates of 140,000, according to Dow Jones data.
The unemployment rate was 4.2% last month, slightly higher than forecasts of a 4.1% jobless rate, where it stood in February.
Average hourly wages rose to $36, rising 3.8% year-over-year, compared to projections of 3.9% pay growth.
The government revised its January and February job growth estimates downward by a combined 48,000.
Big Number
4,000. That’s how much Federal government employment declined by last month, evidence of the impact of the mass layoffs overseen by the Department of Government Efficiency, led by the world’s richest man Elon Musk.
What We Don’t Know
How any economic carnage from Trump’s wide-sweeping tariffs Wednesday will impact the labor market. Under the tariff rates announced Wednesday, the unemployment rate would rise to 5.1% by the end of this year and 5.4% by the end of 2026, forecasted UBS economists in a Wednesday note to clients. That’s a far cry from the 4.4% and 4.3% 2025 and 2026 jobless rates projected in Federal Reserve officials’ median forecasts released last month.
First Tariff Layoffs Take Hold
Jeep parent Stellantis said Thursday it will temporarily lay off about 900 workers across five manufacturing plants in Michigan and Indiana. Antonio Filosa, the company’s Americas chief operating officer, wrote to employees Stellantis is “continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations, but also have decided to take some immediate actions,” according to CNN.
What To Watch For
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing’s annual conference at 11:25 a.m. EDT Thursday, making his first public remarks since Trump revealed his tariff plans.
