Here Are The Leading Candidates On Major Platforms

Topline

Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has surged on some online betting markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, on day two of the papal conclave as Italian Pietro Parolin still leads—though bettors appear to be placing their wagers blindly, as the papal conclave is completely cut off from the outside world and not even Vatican experts can confidently predict who will become Pope Francis’ successor.

Cardinals gathered at the Sistine Chapel Wednesday to elect a new pope. (Photo by Christopher … More Furlong/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Tagle has cut into much of Parolin’s lead on Kalshi and Polymarket, online prediction markets legally authorized to accept bets in the U.S., after three rounds of voting have yet to produce a pope on day two of the conclave.

Parolin maintains a slim lead over Tagle on Kalshi, where bettors have given Parolin a 27% chance and Tagle a 25% shot at winning the papacy, closer odds than Wednesday, when Parolin led Tagle 31%-21%.

Parolin maintains more of a lead on Polymarket, where he leads Tagle 28%-23%, though his lead on that platform was much larger on Wednesday morning, about 28%-19%.

Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state who is considered more moderate than the liberal-leaning Francis, and Tagle, a liberal-leaning cardinal whose advocacy for the poor has drawn comparisons to Francis, have both been floated by papal experts as likely leading candidates.

Bettors on the next pope have wagered more than $25 million in total on Polymarket and $9 million on Kalshi.

Italians Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, also considered by experts to be possible candidates, rank third (10%) and fourth (10%) on Polymarket, while their positions are swapped on Kalshi.

Hungary’s Peter Erdo ranks fifth on both Polymarket and Kalshi with 7% odds, while Ghana’s Peter Turkson ranks sixth on both platforms.

Who Do Experts Think Will Be The Next Pope?

Vatican experts say there is no single frontrunner to become pope, though there are several cardinals seen as favorites. This papal election is especially difficult to predict, experts have said, because the conclave is the largest and most globally diverse ever, largely because Francis appointed more than 100 cardinals from countries underrepresented in the church, who are eligible to participate in the conclave. “It’s really a much more complicated chemistry this time, because also there’s a very complicated international situation which affects different cardinals, different local churches in different ways,” Villanova University theology professor Massimo Faggioli told NPR. Many of the names experts have singled out as frontrunners are among those leading the betting odds—including Parolin, Tagle, Zuppi and Pizzaballa.

When Will The New Pope Be Chosen?

The conclave began Wednesday at the Sistine Chapel—it’s unclear how long the conclave will take, though all recent conclaves have taken two to three days. One vote will be cast Wednesday, the first day of the conclave, and four votes will be cast in each succeeding day until one candidate garners the necessary two-thirds majority to win. Once votes are tallied, black smoke will be emitted from the Sistine Chapel if the necessary majority was not achieved, while white smoke indicates a pope has been chosen.

Key Background

Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi became prominent during the 2024 presidential election. On Polymarket alone, more than $3.6 billion was bet on the outcome of the election, which largely had President Donald Trump in the lead, though former Vice President Kamala Harris occasionally passed Trump in the odds for brief periods early in her campaign. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who noted Polymarket also correctly predicted Mark Carney would become Canada’s next prime minister, touted Polymarket as “the most accurate source of information on the internet” in a post on X.