Topline
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona and Georgia and the two are tied in North Carolina in the latest Marist polls released Thursday, part of a tranche of new surveys that show no clear leader in the seven states likely to decide the winner of the 2024 election.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at the Aero Center Wilmington on September 21, … [+]
Key Facts
Pennsylvania: Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in two of four surveys out Sept. 19: by four points (50% to 46%) in a New York Times/Siena College survey of likely voters, and by one point (48% to 47%) in a Washington Post poll of registered voters, while a Marist poll of likely voters shows them tied at 49% and an Emerson College likely voter poll shows Trump up by one point (48% to 47%).
Michigan: Harris is up 52% to Trump’s 47%, according to last week’s Marist poll, while Emerson found her leading by two points, 49% to 47%, and a Quinnipiac poll released Sept. 18 shows her up by five, 45% to 50%.
Wisconsin: Harris leads by one point in the Marist (50% to 49%) and Quinnipiac (48% to 47%) polls taken last week, while Trump is up one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson survey.
Arizona: Trump leads Harris by one point here in Thursday’s Marist poll of likely voters, 50% to 49%, and by five points in a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday—one of several that shows mixed results in the state, including an Emerson survey that shows Harris up 49% to 48% and a CNN/SSRS survey from Aug. 23 to 29 that found Trump up by five points, 49% to 44%.
Georgia: Trump leads by four points, 49% to 45%, in both the Marist poll released Thursday and in the New York Times/Siena survey; he is up by three points, 50% to 47%, in the Sept. 19 Emerson survey, and Harris is up by one point, 48% to 47%, in the August CNN/SSRS poll.
Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the Emerson poll, and Harris is up by one point, 48% to 47%, in the CNN/SSRS survey.
North Carolina: Harris and Trump are tied at 49% in the latest Marist poll; Harris leads Trump by two points in the New York Times/Siena poll; she is up by one point in the Emerson poll; and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult found her up by two points, 49% to 47%, in late August.
Big Number
2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in Real Clear Politics’ polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.6 points.
Tangent
Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
