Topline
Polling after the the likely only vice presidential debate between Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz showed that, despite there being no clear winner, both candidates increased their favorability—though more viewers still hold Walz in higher regard than Vance.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is seemingly more favorable than Ohio Sen. JD Vance in early polls, but he … [+]
Key Facts
Post-debate polling from CBS News and YouGov among 1,630 likely voters who watched the debate found Walz’s favorability increased from 52% to 60% after the debate, and Vance’s increased from 40% to 49%.
Both candidates unfavorability also decreased, with Walz’s falling from 41% to 35% and Vance’s dropping from 54% to 47%, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of ±2.7 points.
Debate viewers broadly thought the debate was generally positive (88%), and most thought both Walz and Vance were prepared and sounded more reasonable than extreme.
Prior to the debate, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sept. 28 found Midwestern voters prefer Walz to Vance: Walz was viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 41%, while Vance was viewed favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 48%.
More people in the pre-debate Times poll also felt the words “honest” and “trustworthy” described Walz than Vance—the poll was conducted from Sept. 21-26 among voters in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin and had a margin of error of ±2.5 points.
An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Sept. 24 showed more people find Vance unfavorable than Walz, with 32% of respondents saying they have an unfavorable opinion of Walz and 57% saying the same about Vance.
The poll—which was conducted Sept. 12-16 among 1,771 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3.4 points—also found Walz is more well liked across party lines than Vance: 11% of Republican voters had a favorable opinion of Walz while just 4% of Democratic voters had a favorable opinion of Vance.
Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.
News Peg
The candidates faced off in their first, and likely only, vice presidential debate on Tuesday on CBS. Heading into the debate, both candidates remained relatively unknown, with 25% of registered voters in the September AP poll saying they don’t know enough about Walz and 21% saying the same about Vance.
Big Number
42%. That’s how many debate viewers in the CBS poll thought Vance was the winner of the debate, compared to 41% who thought Walz won. Seventeen percent of viewers said the debate ended in a tie.
Surprising Fact
Walz was the only candidate on either the Democratic or Republican party ticket who had more supporters than detractors among the likely electorate of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, according to the Sept. 28 New York Times/Siena College poll.
Key Background
In the past, experts have been skeptical of whether vice presidential picks have much influence on an election’s outcome, but with November’s race expected to be highly contested, even small boosts from vice presidential picks could be game changers. In the latest FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had virtually erased the growing lead Trump had on President Joe Biden and is now ahead by nearly three points. Both campaigns have cast their vice presidential picks as politicians who can speak to voters in key midwestern swing states, though Vance is also seen as a Trump loyalist and an appeal to his MAGA base, and some parts of the Democratic base pushed for Walz due to his support for some progressive priorities. Joel Goldstein, professor emeritus at Saint Louis University and an expert on vice presidencies, recently told Minnesota Public Radio that while most people are going to vote on their perception of the presidential candidates, the vice presidential picks provide insight into how they make decisions, which can help voters decide who to support. Running mates can also make differences in their home states, Goldstein said—though in this case, both Minnesota and Ohio are unlikely to be key swing states.
Forbes Valuation
We estimate Vance is worth about $10 million, while Walz has an estimated net worth of just north of $1 million. Vance has made his money on his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” along with real estate investments that we estimate total about $4 million. Walz, on the other hand, owns no property, stocks or bonds and his wealth is based on his and his wife’s pensions for their work in teaching and government.
