Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Topline

Donald Trump has narrowed the presidential race against Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris has erased Trump’s lead in Nevada, according to a new Cook Political Report swing state survey that shows Harris leading by one point overall in the seven battlegrounds likely to decide the election.

Former President and Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks at a press conference in … [+] the Discovery Center on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Michigan: Harris’s three-point lead from August (51% to 48%) remains unchanged in Cook Political Report’s latest survey released Wednesday, and she holds an only 1-point advantage over Trump in a Saturday New York Times/Siena poll (48% to 47%). Harris is up 1.9 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and by 1.7 points in RealClearPolitics’ average.

Wisconsin: Harris’ three-point lead here in August has decreased to two points (49% to 47%), according to Cook, while the Times poll found her with a 49% to 47% lead. Harris is up 1.6 points in Wisconsin in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and by 0.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

Pennsylvania: Harris is up one point (50% to 49%) in Cook’s latest poll and its August survey, she is up is up three points (50% to 47%) in an AARP survey released Tuesday, and an Emerson survey, also released Tuesday, shows a tie at 48%. Harris leads by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, and they’re tied in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

Arizona: Harris has maintained the two-point lead (50% to 48%) Cook recorded in its August survey, and she leads by three points (50% to 47%) in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Trump leads in Arizona by 1.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and 1.7 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

Georgia: Trump has gained two points here since Cook’s August survey, which showed him tied with Harris, while the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll also found them tied here at 49%. Trump is up 1.3 points in Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, and by 1.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

Nevada: Harris now leads by one point here, after trailing three points behind Trump in Cook’s August survey, and the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey shows Harris up by seven points (52% to 45%). Harris leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and by 1.1 points in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

North Carolina: Harris and Trump are tied at 49% in the Cook survey, after Harris led by one point here in August; she leads by two points (50% to 48%) in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, and she and Trump are tied at 48% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Friday. Trump is ahead in North Carolina by 0.6 points in both FiveThirtyEight’s and RealClearPolitics’ polling averages.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.7 points.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.