Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Topline

Former President Donald Trump now leads Vice President Kamala Harris in four of seven battlegrounds, according to new swing state polling by Emerson College that shows the race is a toss-up in most of the states likely to pick the next president less than a month before Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on October 9, 2024 in Reading, … [+] Pennsylvania. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Michigan: Trump and Harris are tied here at 49% in an Emerson poll released Thursday that shows Trump has lost two points since the group’s September survey, while Trump leads by three points (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up one point in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll, representing a one-point gain for Harris since last month’s Emerson survey. Harris is still up 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll, but trails him by one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson poll—a one-point gain for each candidate since the September Emerson survey found Trump up 48%-47%. Harris leads by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump leads by two points (49% to 47%) in the Emerson poll, representing a one-point dip in support for Harris since September, while Trump has a 1.4-point edge according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Georgia: Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).

Nevada: Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the latest Emerson survey that found Trump has lost a point since September. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump has reversed Harris’ one point lead since Emerson’s September survey in its latest poll that shows him leading her 49% to 48%. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina by one point according to FiveThirtyEight.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.5 points.

Key Background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.