Hurricane Milton Headed Toward Florida As A Category 4: What To Know

Topline

Hurricane Milton has been downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico but was still described by the National Hurricane Center as “extremely dangerous” Tuesday morning as it barrels toward the Florida Gulf coast, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene killed at least 20 people in the state before causing devastating flooding across parts of the southeastern U.S.

A sign is seen at the Pass-A-Grille Women’s Club in St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane … [+] Milton’s expected landfall in the middle of this week on Oct. 7, 2024.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Milton had maximum sustained winds near 145 mph as of 7 a.m. EDT, qualifying it as a Category 4—a downgrade from the Category 5 classification it earned Monday afternoon.

Milton is forecast to move near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of Florida by Wednesday evening.

Milton is expected to continue fluctuating in strength for the next day or so while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and will likely weaken slightly before it hits Florida, but “there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state.”

The National Hurricane Center called the storms approach a “very serious situation” and said Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

The storm was about 545 miles west-southwest of Tampa as of 8 a.m. Monday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo at the southern tip of the state to the near the panhandle, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, and for the east coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line near Orlando north past Jacksonville.

Hurricane watches are in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast for Lake Okeechobee, about 40 miles inland from West Palm Beach, and from Chokoloskee, about 90 miles south of Fort Meyers, to south of Bonita Beach.

Tropical storm warnings cover much of Florida, including all of the Florida Keys, and a storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 15 feet in Tampa Bay and between the Anclote River and Englewood in Florida, and by between 3 and 10 feet in other parts of the state (the Hurricane Center warms the surge “will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves”).

Hurricane Milton is expected to bring 5 to 12 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night, which could cause “life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding,” according to the NHC.

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Crucial Quote

“I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever. If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN.

Where Have Evacuations Been Ordered?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including all of the Tampa Bay area, and warned of a “flurry” of evacuation orders. According to the Associated Press, Milton could trigger the biggest spate of evacuation orders in the state since 2017’s Hurricane Irma—where 7 million people were urged to leave their homes. Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas near Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night. Lee County, home to Fort Meyers, issued a mandatory evacuation order for the island of Fort Myers Beach. Other mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in Pinellas County, Pasco County and Manatee County. Volusia County has issued a curfew and enacted evacuation orders starting Wednesday morning and Marion County is under a mandatory evacuation order for mobile homes, RVs, and modular-type homes.

Is Hurricane Milton Impact

Tampa International Airport will close at 9 a.m. Tuesday with plans to reopen “as soon as it is safe” later this week. Major U.S. airlines, including American, Delta, Southwest, United and JetBlue, are issuing travel waivers that will allow passengers flying through impacted airports to rebook without paying far differences. American Airlines’ travel alert covers 12 airports in Florida, Delta’s covers nine and Frontier covers eight. United Airlines’ advisory covers travel to and from only five airports—Key West, Orlando, Fort Myers, Sarasota/Bradenton and Tampa.

Could Hurricane Milton Become A Category 6 Hurricane?

There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center uses the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms, which ranks only up to a Category 5 and defines those storms as having sustained winds at or greater than 157 mph. Earlier this year, researchers with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Space Science and Engineering Center argued for adding a sixth storm category as climate change continues to intensify weather events. Under their proposal, Category 5 hurricanes would be redefined to encompass storms with sustained wind speeds between 157 and 192 mph and a new Category 6 would describe storms with wind speeds above 192 mph.

Key Background

Milton is expected to arrive less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, a major Category 4 storm, hit Florida on Sept. 26. Helene was the hardest hit for the Tampa Bay area from a hurricane in 103 years, according to the Associated Press. Despite staying offshore, Helene inundated parts of the area with several feet of storm surge. At least 20 people died in Florida from the storm, which then traveled 500 miles across the Southeastern U.S. and caused heavy flooding in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Tennessee. At least 230 people across six states died as a result of the hurricane, which was the deadliest to hit the continental U.S. since Katrina in 2005. Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, approximately 160 miles north of Tampa, with winds of 140 mph before it was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved northward.

Surprising Fact

Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2024 will be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, estimating 8 to 13 hurricanes and between 4 and 7 major hurricanes.

Mary Whitfill Roeloffs contributed to this report.