Hurricane Milton Headed Toward Florida As A Category 4: What To Know

Topline

Hurricane Milton has been downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico but was still described by the National Hurricane Center as “extremely dangerous” late Tuesday morning as it barrels toward the Florida Gulf coast, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated the southeastern U.S.

A sign is seen at the Pass-A-Grille Women’s Club in St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane … [+] Milton’s expected landfall in the middle of this week on Oct. 7, 2024.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Milton had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph as of 11 a.m. EDT, up from 145 mph as of the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. update.

The storm reached Category 5 wind speeds Monday afternoon before it was downgraded back to a Category 4 Tuesday morning after speeds dropped somewhat, but could be upgraded again if sustained winds reach 157 mph.

The National Hurricane Center extended the storm surge warning southward along the east coast of Florida to include Port Canaveral in its latest update, predicting a surge could raise water levels by as much as 15 feet in Tampa Bay and between the Anclote River and Englewood and warning of “large and dangerous waves.”

The storm was about 520 miles west-southwest of Tampa as of 11 a.m. Tuesday and forecasters said Milton is expected to retain its major hurricane status and expand in size before hitting the west coast of Florida by Wednesday evening.

Milton is expected to continue fluctuating in strength for the next day or so while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and will likely weaken slightly before it hits Florida, but “there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.”

The National Hurricane Center called the storm’s approach a “very serious situation” and said Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

A hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo at the southern tip of the state to the near the panhandle, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, and for the east coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line near Orlando north past Jacksonville.

Hurricane watches are in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast for Lake Okeechobee, about 40 miles inland from West Palm Beach, and from Chokoloskee, about 90 miles south of Fort Meyers, to south of Bonita Beach.

Hurricane Milton is expected to bring 5 to 12 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night, which could cause “life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding,” according to the NHC.

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Where Have Evacuations Been Ordered?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including all of the Tampa Bay area, and warned of a “flurry” of evacuation orders. According to the Associated Press, Milton could trigger the biggest spate of evacuation orders in the state since 2017’s Hurricane Irma—where 7 million people were urged to leave their homes. Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, ordered evacuations for areas near Tampa Bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night. Lee County, home to Fort Meyers, issued a mandatory evacuation order for the island of Fort Myers Beach. Other mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in Pinellas County, Pasco County and Manatee County. Volusia County has issued a curfew and enacted evacuation orders starting Wednesday morning and Marion County is under a mandatory evacuation order for mobile homes, RVs, and modular-type homes.

Crucial Quote

“I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever. If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN.

Is Hurricane Milton Impacting Travel?

Tampa International Airport closed at 9 a.m. Tuesday with plans to reopen “as soon as it is safe” later this week. Orlando International Airport will close at 8 a.m. Wednesday. Major U.S. airlines, including American, Delta, Southwest, United and JetBlue, are issuing travel waivers that will allow passengers flying through impacted airports to rebook without paying far differences. American Airlines’ travel alert covers 12 airports in Florida, Delta’s covers nine and Frontier covers eight. United Airlines’ advisory covers travel to and from only five airports—Key West, Orlando, Fort Myers, Sarasota/Bradenton and Tampa.

Is Hurricane Milton Impacting Disney World?

Walt Disney World Resort is currently open and operating as usual but Disney has announced some of its Orlando-area offerings will close Wednesday morning, including the Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground, Copper Creek Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge and the Treehouse Villas at Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa. The company warned the attractions won’t reopen until later in the week. Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando are also open and operating as usual, and both parks say they are monitoring the weather and will make adjustments as needed.

Could Hurricane Milton Become A Category 6 Hurricane?

There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center uses the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms, which ranks only up to a Category 5 and defines those storms as having sustained winds at or greater than 157 mph. Earlier this year, researchers with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Space Science and Engineering Center argued for adding a sixth storm category as climate change continues to intensify weather events. Under their proposal, Category 5 hurricanes would be redefined to encompass storms with sustained wind speeds between 157 and 192 mph and a new Category 6 would describe storms with wind speeds above 192 mph.

Key Background

Milton is expected to arrive less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, a major Category 4 storm, hit Florida on Sept. 26. Helene was the hardest hit for the Tampa Bay area from a hurricane in 103 years, according to the Associated Press. Despite staying offshore, Helene inundated parts of the area with several feet of storm surge. At least 20 people died in Florida from the storm, which then traveled 500 miles across the Southeastern U.S. and caused heavy flooding in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Tennessee. At least 230 people across six states died as a result of the hurricane, which was the deadliest to hit the continental U.S. since Katrina in 2005. Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, approximately 160 miles north of Tampa, with winds of 140 mph before it was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved northward.

Surprising Fact

Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2024 will be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, estimating 8 to 13 hurricanes and between 4 and 7 major hurricanes.

Mary Whitfill Roeloffs contributed to this report.