Topline
A majority of high net worth Americans favor Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump in November’s election, according to a new survey, as the pair spar over the U.S. economy while it navigates a potential inflection point.
Kamala Harris speaks during the New York Times’ Dealbook Summit in 2023.
Key Facts
About 57% of American millionaires plan to vote for Harris compared to 43% for Trump, according to the poll released Thursday by the wealth management branch of the investment bank UBS.
Still, the survey of 971 U.S. investors with $1 million or more in investable assets, conducted last month, found a slim majority of millionaires favored Trump to address the economy (51%) and Trump supporters named his tax policy as his top draw, with 64% of that group identifying his tax approach as a reason he is better for the economy.
A heavy majority of respondents indicated they are mulling adjusting their portfolios leading up to the election, at 77%, up from 63% from a similar survey in August 2020, perhaps not a surprise considering Harris and Trump’s divergent policies.
Contra
A similar poll of business owners from UBS released Thursday revealed a far more pro-Trump tilt, with 53% favoring the Republican candidate to Harris’ 47%. About two-thirds of respondents said they were highly concerned about business tax rates increasing, the top worry spot identified in the survey of 500 business owners overseeing annual revenues of more than $1 million. The business owners preferred Trump on the economy at a 55% to 45% margin and on taxes at a 54% to 46% margin.
Tangent
The millionaire group viewed healthcare, technology and sustainability-focused stocks as the most attractive sectors if Harris wins, and defense, energy and industrials as the most attractive sectors if Trump wins. Strategists have said tech stocks may be better suited under Harris due to Trump’s hawkish trade stance with China and some big American tech companies’ outsized reliance on Chinese business, while Trump’s promise to lower regulatory obstacles are seen as a boon for regulation-heavy industries like energy.
Key Background
Running a campaign largely targeting the U.S.’ middle class, Harris backs several policies designed to rail against the country’s wealthiest citizens, including a controversial tax on unrealized capital gains for individuals worth at least $100 million, which would consider stock market gains on already held stocks taxable income. Both Harris and Trump have courted business owners, with Harris floating a tenfold increase to the startup tax break and Trump proposing a major cut to the corporate tax rate for companies that produce products domestically. Polling of the broaderU.S. population mostly suggests a slight preference for Trump to oversee the economy. Though stock indexes continue to set new highs and economic growth remains robust, many Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, with inflation at the core of the malcontent as price jumps raged to a four-decade high during the Biden administration.
