Topline
Netflix will report its first-quarter earnings results Thursday afternoon, a report which analysts expect will show the streaming giant’s best quarter ever by several metrics, setting the stakes for Netflix stock moving forward after it emerged as a perhaps surprising stock market safe haven during the recent slump.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos attends a Netflix premiere in February.
Key Facts
In its Q1 due shortly after 4 p.m. EDT market close, Netflix is expected to report its best-ever quarterly earnings, revenue and global subscriber numbers.
Consensus analyst estimates call for the entertainment titan to report $5.67 adjusted EPS ($2.5 billion net income), $10.5 billion in sales and 304.5 million subscribers for the first three months of 2025, according to FactSet data.
The 4.8 million in forecasted paid net new subscribers would be Netflix’s slowest subscriber growth since Q1 2023, though that’d still be a stark improvement from Netflix’s two quarters of negative growth in 2022, which slashed Netflix’s share price by more than 70% (it wasn’t until last year Netflix exceeded its 2021 all-time high).
Shares of Netflix rose nearly 2% to just below $980 on Thursday.
Netflix Stock Emerges As A Potential Recession Winner
Netflix has emerged from the 2025 stock losses stronger, gaining 4% since April 2 and 9% year-to-date. That came as the S&P 500 (down 6% since April 2, 10% year-to-date excluding dividends) and the Nasdaq (-7%, -15%) both pulled back as President Donald Trump’s trade war heightened recession concerns. Many analysts herald Netflix stock as a safe parking spot as economic slowdown fears swirl. “If a recession hits, we would expect Netflix subscribers to be sticky as Netflix is a stay-at-home cheap diversion, of the type that has held up well in past recessions,” Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a Monday note to clients. “Amid recent market volatility, Netflix’s strong subscription model with critical entertainment (which historically has performed well in a recession) has made the stock a defensive choice for investors,” Bank of America analysts led by Jessica Reif Ehrlich concurred in a Tuesday note.
Surprising Fact
Netflix has far outperformed other members of the “FAANG” group, smashing returns this year from the other high-growth technology names: Facebook parent Meta (down 14% year-to-date excluding dividends), Amazon (-21%), Apple (-21%) and Google parent Alphabet (-19%). Netflix has also outperformed Disney (-23% year-to-date) and Max parent Warner Bros. Discovery (-23%), though audio streamer Spotify’s 29% gain this year tops Netflix’s.
What To Watch For
Fellow FAANG constituents Alphabet and Amazon will join Netflix in reporting Q1 earnings next week. Both West Coast titans will deliver results next Thursday.
