Topline
Former President Donald Trump vaulted past Vice President Kamala Harris to become the bookmaker’s favorite to win the election in November, following a surge in bets in his favor this week, which he appeared to tout as a sign of momentum for his campaign.
Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump, speaks at the Detroit Economic … [+]
Key Facts
According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets—bookmakers now give Trump a 53.2% chance of winning in November, compared to Harris’ 45.8%.
This marks a major shift in Trump’s favor, as the GOP candidate’s consolidated odds have surged by around 5 points in the past week, while Harris’ has fallen by a similar margin.
The biggest boost for Trump’s odds has come from bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who now predict Trump has a 55.8% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 43.5%.
On Kalshi—which recently won a federal court ruling to continue accepting bets on the election—bookmakers give Trump a narrower edge of 52% to Harris’ 48%.
Trump’s odds have also jumped ahead of Harris on PredictIt for the first time in over two months, with bets favoring the former president priced at 54 cents per share (roughly equating to a 54% chance) compared to 51 cents for Harris.
On the British betting site Smarkets, Trump leads Harris 54 to 45.
News Peg
Trump shared a screenshot of the Polymarket betting odds favoring him on his Truth Social on Thursday—something he has done in the past with national polls and projections showing him ahead of Harris. In the past few days, billionaire Elon Musk—who has endorsed Trump’s candidacy—has also shared betting numbers from Polymarket. Musk has even claimed betting markets are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” without sharing any evidence to back this claim. The billionaire X owner previously shared a post from a follower, which suggested the boost in Trump’s odds in the key swing state of Pennsylvania came “just a day after Elon Musk attended his rally” in the state. Even as Musk and Trump tout betting market numbers, some users on social media have pointed out that bets favoring Trump on Polymarket, have come from so-called “whales” who hold large betting positions. One Polymarket bettor, who goes by “Fredi9999”, has raised his bets favoring a Trump win to almost $8 million.
Surprising Fact
Kalshi and PredictIt only allow U.S. citizens to place bets on the election outcomes.
Big Number
2.4%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
Crucial Quote
In his blog post about the betting markets’ swing in favor of Trump, polling analyst Nate Silver wrote: “Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they’re in the doldrums…Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket…People assume there must be something there, that somebody knows something, but usually it’s just a Rich Guy With Opinions.”
Further Reading
Trump’s Election Odds Spike On Polymarket As Musk Touts Betting Site (Forbes)
