Topline
A handful of bettors scored massive payouts upon the selection of the new leader of the Catholic Church, Robert Francis Prevost, who was considered a longshot candidate on increasingly popular prediction markets which allow users to wager on news events.
Robert Prevost appears for the first time as Pope Leo XIV.
Key Facts
On the blockchain-based site Polymarket, six users profited at least $20,000 on Prevost wagers, according to a publicly available ledger of all bets placed on Polymarket.
Leading those winners was a whopping $63,650.65 profit off of a $1,059.52 bet from a user named “JustPunched,” a more than 6,000% return on investment.
Polymarket rival Kalshi said one bettor on its platform received a $52,641 payout off of a $526 wager.
Prevost was a long-shot candidate on both sites before the church announced his selection, with just 1.6% and 1.8% market-implied odds of becoming the next pope as of 12 p.m. EDT on Thursday on Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.
That means a $170 bet on Prevost at 12 p.m. would have netted a roughly $10,000 payout.
Big Number
$40.4 million. That was the total betting volume across Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s papal betting markets.
Contra
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the betting favorite on both sites prior to the conclusion of the conclave. At least nine bettors on Polymarket lost $10,000 or more betting on Parolin’s selection.
Key Background
A Chicago native and Villanova University graduate, the 69-year-old Prevost is the first American pope. Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction market platforms came to prominence during the 2024 presidential election, specifically for the sites’ heavier lean toward a Trump victory than polling-based models. Kalshi investors include American billionaires Henry Kravis and Charles Schwab, and Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump, is a strategic adviser to the company.
