Topline
Apple will take center stage Thursday when it reports earnings from the first three months of the year, providing an early glimpse into the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on its border-spanning business, though analysts largely suggest investors won’t have all their questions answered.
Apple stock slumped early Thursday after receiving a legal blow.
Key Facts
Apple will disclose financial results from 2025’s first calendar quarter at about 4:30 p.m. EDT, with a conference call to follow at 5 p.m., streamed here.
Forecasts call for Apple to generate $94.4 billion in revenue and $1.62 earnings per share ($24.3 billion net income), according to consensus analyst estimates compiled by FactSet, pointing to year-over-year top line growth of 4% and bottom line growth of 3%.
Wall Street expects sources of strength to include sales in the Americas region, forecasted to grow 6% to $39.7 billion, and sales for Apple services, its high margin segment encompassing the App Store, AppleCare and AppleTV+, with services revenue growing a projected 12% to a record $26.7 billion.
But analysts predict it may be another shaky quarter for iPhone and Greater China revenue, projecting flat annual growth for smartphone sales at $46 billion.
Apple likely benefited during the quarter from a “pull forward in demand” as consumers braced for tariffs to go into effect, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note to clients last week.
Why Earnings May Not Move The Needle For Apple Stock
Thursday’s print won’t be a “key catalyst for the stock,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Erik Woodring, explaining they “fear” investors won’t learn “much” on the host of high-stakes questions hovering over the company swept up in geopolitics. “Because of all the policy gyrations, Apple’s performance this quarter is unlikely to be meaningfully indicative of long-term value,” added Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett in a Thursday note.
Key Background
To those analysts’ points, the quarter discussed in Thursday’s earnings report won’t include the company’s topsy turvy April, including Trump’s far more aggressive than anticipated “Liberation Day” country-by-country duties and his standing down on his most aggressive levies. Notably for Apple, the White House lowered tariffs on Chinese smartphone imports from 145% to 20%, lowering Apple’s projected tariff profit hit from 29% to 5%, according to UBS. “I speak to Tim Cook. I helped Tim Cook, recently, and that whole business,” Trump said following the exemption about his relationship with Apple CEO Tim Cook. Apple assembles about 90% of iPhones in China, and generated about 17% of its revenue last fiscal year from its Greater China reporting segment.
Crucial Quote
Apple’s earnings report “will be an exercise in navigating policy minefields,” wrote Crockett.
Apple Stock Slumps On Epic Games Ruling
In the latest development of Apple’s legal standoff against Fortnite maker Epic Games, a federal judge ruled Wednesday that Apple knowingly violated a court order prohibiting the Silicon Valley titan from collecting fees on purchases made outside of iOS apps. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers said the company made “obvious lies” in court, holding the company in contempt. Shares of Apple declined about 1.5% premarket after the App Store legal blow, moving against a tech stock surge after Facebook parent Meta and Microsoft reported blowout earnings as the Nasdaq surged close to 2%.
