Topline
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, faced off in a mostly polite yet policy-heavy vice presidential debate Tuesday night that was described by some as “midwestern nice,” but bettors and polled viewers believed the Republican candidate beat his Democratic rival.
The vice-presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz was a more polite affair than … [+]
Key Facts
CBS News, which conducted the debate, released a snap poll of debate watchers shortly after the event, in which 42% of the respondents thought Vance won, 41% gave the edge to Walz and 17% thought it was a tie.
According to the CBS poll, both candidates received a favorability boost after the debate with Vance’s number rising from 40% to 49% while Walz jumped from 52% to 60%.
CNN also published a post-debate instant poll of viewers asking which candidate did a better job with Vance narrowly beating Walz 51-49.
The CNN poll also showed a jump in favorability for both candidates, with respondents who view Walz favorably rising from 46% to 59% while Vance’s numbers rose from 30% to 41%.
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How Did The Betting Markets React?
The betting markets declared Vance the winner of the debate. On the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, bookmakers believe Vance has a 73% chance of being judged the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in post-debate opinion polls, compared to Walz’s 27%. This is a complete inversion from before the debate, when bettors gave Walz a 70% chance of being declared the debate winner.
Tangent
Bookmakers on the election betting markets gave former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning a slight boost on Tuesday, but most of the shift occurred a few hours before the debate—likely as a result of some favorable polling for the Republican in Georgia and North Carolina. Vice President Kamala Harris, however, holds a slight lead, with bookmarkers giving her a 50.3% chance of winning in November compared to 48.9%.
Further Reading
Trump Claims Harris ‘Just’ Requested Another Debate—But Says Again He Won’t Do It (Forbes)
Walz Says He ‘Misspoke’ By Claiming He Was In Hong Kong During Tiananmen Square Protests (Forbes)
