Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris could become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years as the state has slowly shifted to the left, with most polls showing her and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat—though the latest survey gives Trump a razor-thin lead.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign event on October 4, 2024 in Fayetteville, North … [+]
Key Facts
Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in an Emerson College poll out Thursday after Harris led 49% to 48% in the group’s September survey.
Trump leads Harris by two points in surveys of likely voters taken Sept. 25-29 by the Washington Post and Quinnipiac University, while Harris leads by two points in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Sept. 26 and the two are tied in a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27.
The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to a “toss up” in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris’ entrance into the race, while Cook’s latest survey released earlier this month shows Harris and Trump tied, after Harris led by one point here in August.
If Harris wins the state, she has a 95.4% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Index, which found Trump would have a 73.4% chance of winning the electoral college if he wins North Carolina.
Harris has a 39.5% chance of winning North Carolina, identical to her odds in Georgia, and as of August, there was an 86% chance the states will vote together, according to Silver’s model, which considers various demographic characteristics, including age, income, race and education level and the states’ voting history in the past two elections.
North Carolina’s shift to the left has largely been credited to a population increase among potential voters who typically back Democrats—including the highly educated—especially from a 5.6% increase since 2020 near the “research triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, according to the Brookings Institution.
That area hosts three major research universities—Duke University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and North Carolina University—that have also sparked related industries in high tech and the life sciences, and made it the tenth-fastest growing area in the country, according to Brookings.
And the overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree—a Democratic-leaning demographic—has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to a study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
What To Watch For
Whether scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, could hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina. Trump endorsed Robinson prior to a CNN report revealing a string of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat forum before his entrance into politics, including referring to himself as a “Black NAZI.” Polls taken after the Sept. 19 story show Democratic candidate Josh Stein has widened his lead over Robinson, to as many as 19 points in a recent Emerson College survey. A CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27 also found Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points and a tie between Trump and Harris, suggesting Robinson’s scandals haven’t affected Trump’s standing there. Historically, the demise of down-ballot candidates rarely drag down the affiliated party’s presidential candidate, CNN notes.
Big Number
16. That’s how many electoral college votes North Carolina has, after gaining a vote after the 2020 census. The state has the eighth most electoral votes in the country, tied with Georgia.
Contra
Despite the electorate’s increasingly Democratic leanings, Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the legislature, giving it the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes.
Surprising Fact
North Carolina has only voted for one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008.
Key Background
Harris holds an advantage over Trump in almost all of the seven battleground states, according to the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey showing her leading among likely voters by seven points in Nevada, five in Pennsylvania, three in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and two in North Carolina, with a tie in Georgia. Trump also trails Harris in most recent national surveys and now leads him by two points overall, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. North Carolina was the only swing state where Biden lost to Trump (by one point) in 2020.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 6 Points In Latest Likely Voter Survey (Forbes)
