Topline
While Iran does not yet have nuclear arms, analysts believe the country’s nuclear development program might be a prime target for Israeli retaliation—despite U.S. opposition—following Iran’s missile launches at Israel, as a former Israeli prime minister argues for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
TOPSHOT – Palestinian youths inspect a fallen projectile after Iran launched a barrage of missiles … [+]
Key Facts
Iran attacked Israel on Oct. 1—firing more than 180 missiles with no warning in retaliation for a strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a longstanding ally of Iran’s—causing widespread speculation over how Israel will respond.
While it’s unclear how Israel may retaliate or what targets it could choose, Netanyahu said in a meeting on Oct. 1 that Iran made a big mistake by attacking, and the country will pay for it, according to Reuters.
Iran’s attack “greenlights a counterstrike by Israel, potentially the final showdown blow that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been seeking for years,” possibly targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, Laura Blumenfeld, an author and Middle East analyst at Johns Hopkins University, told Forbes.
Since the attack, former Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett has repeatedly called for an attack, posting on X on Oct. 8 that “NOW is the time to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities and regime.”
Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East security analyst, told Forbes “there is speculation” Israel may target Bushehr—Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant using Russian fuel with low proliferation risk—citing “how Israel reacted to Houthi attacks by bombing fuel depots as a show of force.”
President Joe Biden told reporters on Wednesday the U.S. would not support Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.
U.S. intelligence has stated throughout 2024 that Iran has not built any nuclear weapons, but the country had advanced its nuclear development program since 2018 by building hundreds more centrifuges after the Trump administration pulled out of a deal with Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal.
How Could Iran Respond To Israel Striking Nuclear Facilities?
In April, top Iranian general Ahmad Haghtalab threatened that the country could revise its nuclear policies if Israel hit its nuclear sites, saying such an attack could incite Iranian counterattacks targeting Israel’s own nuclear facilities, according to reporting by state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
Key Background
Israel and Iran are archrivals with a history of terse relations dating back to Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution. A corresponding decades-long shadow war — fueled by Iran’s years of supporting Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah and Islamist militant group Hamas — has become a direct conflict as tensions spiked in recent years, particularly after Hamas’ attack on Israel last year and Israel’s intense invasion of Gaza. Israel — alongside the U.S. and the U.N. — has been concerned with Iranian nuclear progress since Iran started its weapons program in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Israel has spent the decades since targeting the program to prevent nuclear development through Israeli-connected missions like stealing nuclear secrets, sabotaging explosions and launching drone attacks. While Israel never took responsibility, Iran accused the country of assassinating top Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020. Iran has enough weapons-grade nuclear fuel to make three bombs and is one of the only countries without nuclear weapons that can produce 60%-enriched uranium, a quality of enriched uranium close to the 90% needed for weapons, according to The Wall Street Journal. Russian ties to Iran have deepened in recent years, and Bloomberg has reported the U.S. is concerned about the sharing of information and technology between the two countries—a potential boon to Iran’s nuclear interest. Israel is considered an undeclared nuclear weapons power because it is believed to have nuclear arms but has not confirmed possession of them, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
What Would An Attack From Israel Look Like?
While hitting it would be viewed as a major escalation, Israel has long watched Iran’s nuclear enrichment plant in Natanz, an enrichment facility buried in the desert with thousands of centrifuges, according to the New York Times. Other facilities, like the enrichment plant buried under a mountain in Fordow, represent another potential target, yet U.S. officials have historically blocked Israel from getting the bomber planes and weapons powerful enough for an attack so deep underground, The Times reports. But Israel’s methods have used other methods than bombings or missile attacks. Israel has a strong cyberdefense program — exhibited recently when it launched an attack that exploded wireless devices owned by Hezbollah members. Another attack believed to be from the U.S. and Iran happened in the early 2000s — called “Olympic Games” and known commonly the Stuxnet virus — was a cyberattack that used digital “worms” to disrupt Natanz’s facility operations.
Would There Be Nuclear Fallout From An Attack?
Matthew Bunn, a professor of energy, national security and foreign policy at Harvard, told Forbes that there would be no nuclear fallout, or spreading of radioactive material, from attacking a uranium enrichment facility like Natanz or Fordow. These facilities deal with uranium that has not been irradiated in a nuclear reactor, meaning it’s less radioactive. In an attack, some areas may suffer ecological damage, but the result would be isolated to the limited quantity of uranium at the locations, he said.
How Could Iran Respond To Israel Striking Nuclear Facilities?
In April, top Iranian general Ahmad Haghtalab threatened that the country could revise its nuclear policies if Israel hit its nuclear sites, saying such an attack could incite Iranian counterattacks targeting Israel’s own nuclear facilities, according to reporting by state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
Tangent
In mid-2018, former President Donald Trump pulled out of a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Under the Obama administration deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities and permit U.N. inspections, and in return, economic and financial sanctions set by the EU, U.S. and U.N. were lifted. The deal outlined three main points: reducing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium (a key ingredient in making bombs) by 98%, stopping production of higher-grade enriched uranium for 15 years and removing two-thirds of its more than 19,000 centrifuges (machines that enrich uranium). Under the deal, it would take Iran about 12 months to make a nuclear weapon. Trump was outspoken against the deal, calling it “too much in exchange for too little.” Since 2018, Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear program, and while there is no evidence of nuclear-armed missiles, officials are concerned about metallurgy and computer modeling research related to weapons, according to The Wall Street Journal.
What To Watch For
Iran’s nuclear capacity is playing out as a point of contention in the 2024 presidential campaign and was the leading question posed in Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz arguing Trump was incapable of de-escalating tensions and did not put adequate nuclear protections in place when he pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal. Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, argued the Biden-Harris administration has supported Iran financially and that “Donald Trump consistently made the world more secure.” Trump said on Oct. 4 at a campaign event in North Carolina that Israel should “hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” When asked in a 60 Minutes interview on Oct.7, Vice President Kamala Harris responded that Iran was the U.S.’s greatest foreign adversary.
